MLB Player Props · Real EV Math
Real edge.
Graded in public.
ClearEdge AI prices every pick against real sportsbook lines, not assumed ones — de-vigged fair probability, a genuine per-sport statistical model, and fractional Kelly stake sizing. Every result gets checked against the final score and posted the same night. Wins and losses both. No highlight reel.
The Ledger
Updated Sep 27, 2026
The full record — every graded pick, win or loss, counted here. Nothing curated. Nothing removed after the fact.
Methodology
How every pick gets made
Six steps, the same for every game and every prop. None of them are skipped to fill out a slate.
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01
Real lines in
Live sportsbook odds pulled per game and per prop. MLB player props run today across Hits, Total Bases, Home Runs, and Pitcher Strikeouts.
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02
De-vig to a fair price
The book's price gets stripped of the vig first. Every pick starts from a fair number, not the shaded one the book actually offers.
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03
Edge computed
The model's own probability — Pythagorean and log5 for baseball, Poisson for soccer, a rating-based model where it's live for basketball — is compared against the fair price. The gap between them is the edge.
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04
Confidence tiered
Every pick lands in No Bet, Lean, Qualified, or Strong. A weak signal gets sized down or dropped — it never gets pushed just to fill the slate.
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05
Stake sized with fractional Kelly
Bet size scales with real conviction. Bigger only when the math backs it, smaller — or nothing — when it doesn't.
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06
Graded the same night
Every pick, single or parlay, is checked leg-by-leg against the real final score and posted to the ledger above. Nothing waits for a good week to get published.
Why it's different
Not a highlight reel
Most pick accounts show you the wins. This is what ClearEdge does instead.
- Wins and losses both post, publicly, same night. Nothing gets screenshotted after the fact and nothing gets quietly deleted.
- No 70% win-rate claims. In efficient markets like MLB, NBA, and NFL, a real long-run edge looks like 53–57%, beating the ~52.4% breakeven at standard −110 odds — not a headline number.
- No fake scarcity between tiers. Free and Premium get the same grading and the same honesty. Premium simply sees more of the slate.
- The model doesn't get tuned on a bad week. Real edge only shows up over hundreds of graded picks — reacting to 4 or 10 of them is noise, not signal.
Coverage
Where the model runs today
MLB — Full Market
Moneylines, spreads, and totals on every slate, plus player props across Hits, Total Bases, Home Runs, and Pitcher Strikeouts — singles, parlays, and moonshot builds included. Priced against the real market, modeled per-sport, and graded every single night.
NFL
Build starts once MLB has run long enough to be judged on real numbers, not a promise. Expansion follows proof, not the other way around.
Access
Free or premium — same honesty either way
Curated slate
- A curated subset of each day's picks, forwarded from the full Premium slate
- Every pick graded and recapped publicly, win or loss
- No card required
Full slate
- Every graded pick — Singles, Props, and Parlays, in full
- Same grading, same nightly recap, same tiers and staking
- Nothing held back that's already gone into the model